EUR/USD Performance Chart (02/09/10 19:00)
| Daily % Chg |
0.02% |
|
3 months |
7.06% |
| 1 week |
0.75% |
|
6 months |
-5.66% |
| 1 month |
-3.17% |
|
1 year |
-9.93%
|
Details
| Prev close |
1.2809 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.5144 |
| Last trade |
1.2812 |
|
|
52 week low |
1.1877 |
| High |
1.2849 |
|
|
Low |
1.2777 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.39 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.25 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.25 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.25 |
|
|
|
Commentary
Considering all of the major economic events taking place today, it has been a relatively quiet session for the EUR/USD pair. As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) left the minimum bid rate unchanged at 1.00%. The accompanying press conference with Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, also failed to move markets. Typically, volatility can get pretty high during any of his statements, but particularly during the unscripted question and answer session on rate decision days can we see prices jump around quite a bit. Today though, not so much as this pair has only put in a modest low to high range of about 70 pips today. After a massive run by the euro yesterday though, it is not too surprising to see this pair take a pause and settle into a short-term range. There are a plethora of positive and negative factors to consider in both the euro area and the United States and investors have a massive challenge in trying to figure out which direction this currency may head. For the time being, the uncertainty is keeping this pair capped at both the floor and the ceiling. Dan Cook, Chicago
GBP/USD Performance Chart (02/09/10 19:00)
| Daily % Chg |
-0.53% |
|
3 months |
6.36% |
| 1 week |
-1.00% |
|
6 months |
2.27% |
| 1 month |
-3.64% |
|
1 year |
-4.87%
|
Details
| Prev close |
1.5455 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.6878
|
| Last trade |
1.5373 |
|
|
52 week low |
1.4231
|
| High |
1.5460 |
|
|
Low |
1.5356 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.60 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.52 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.47 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.49 |
|
|
|
Commentary
Sterling today has given back most of the gains accrued on the first day of September. Economically speaking, there wasn’t any very good news out of Britain this morning. The Nationwide House Price Index fell three times farther than expected, showing a drop of 0.9% in August and posting its second loss in a as many months. This seemed to correlate pretty well with the UK Construction PMI report also out this morning that showed growth in that sector had slowed again in August as well. With a reading of just 52.1 and having fallen over 6% in the last two months, this index is moving ever closer to showing a contracting environment. In sort of a switch-a-roo, while the pound was getting hurt by negative UK economic data, it was actually positive US data which bolstered the pound earlier. After a much, much better than expected US Pending Home Sales report the GBP surged higher as risk appetite once again weakened the US dollar and allowed the pound to rise. Dan Cook, Chicago
USD/CAD Performance Chart (02/09/10 19:00)
| Daily % Chg |
0.31% |
|
3 months |
-0.92% |
| 1 week |
-0.45% |
|
6 months |
2.07% |
| 1 month |
2.89% |
|
1 year |
-4.63% |
|
Details
| Prev close |
1.0498 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.1103 |
| Last trade |
1.0531 |
|
|
52 week low |
0.9931 |
| High |
1.0547 |
|
|
Low |
1.0472 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.05 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.04 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.01 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.05 |
|
|
|
Commentary
The greenback and the loonie have been dancing a sideways tango over the last 24 hours with nothing much to show for either of their efforts. There were no major economic reports out of Canada today and with exception to a very positive US Pending Home Sales report, every other indicator was pretty much in line with expectations. Weekly initial unemployment claims dropped slightly to a reading of 472K, still an ugly number but not far off expectations. Non-Farm productivity fell 1.8% and Unit Labor Costs grew by 1.1%. Factory Orders missed expectations but still managed to improve to a meager growth reading of 0.1%. Pending Home Sales provided about the only real surprise today with a relatively large swing up to 5.2% growth. After the terrible run of housing related data in August, this was certainly a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately though, I think this is probably more of an anomaly rather than the start of a sustainable trend, and therefore the markets didn't really react that much to the improvement. Not even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments moved the market today as investors sit and wait in anticipation of tomorrow’s all-important BLS Non-farm payroll data. Dan Cook, Chicago
Notes: Chart data sourced from Bloomberg. Bloomberg Median Forecasts are produced by Bloomberg by taking the median level from rates forecast by a number of contributors. These contributors consist of leading banks and security firms.
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