EUR/USD Performance Chart (12/03/10 16:00)
| Daily % Chg |
0.41% |
|
3 months |
-6.27% |
| 1 week |
0.81% |
|
6 months |
-5.72% |
| 1 month |
0.00% |
|
1 year |
7.01%
|
Details
| Prev close |
1.3681 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.5144 |
| Last trade |
1.3737 |
|
|
52 week low |
1.2617
|
| High |
1.3796 |
|
|
Low |
1.3670 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.39 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.39 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.38 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.38 |
|
|
|
Commentary
This morning the euro followed through on the movement that had started yesterday, and was finally able to break out of the small channel where it had been stuck for the past week. After finally climbing over the 1.3700 level, the continental currency received additional fundamental support in the form of industrial production figures. Industrial production in the euro area (EA16) posted growth of 1.7% during January. This more than doubled the expectation of 0.8%, and the euro rode the news higher as the technicals came back into play. However, the euro was stifled at the top end of the longer-term channel which started in mid-February. After just peaking through the high of February 17th the dollar regained control, and again fundamentals continued what the technicals started. Bouncing down from the resistance level near 1.3800, better-than-expected US retail sales figures added more pressure to the euro as we headed into the start of the US trading day. Dan Cook, Chicago
GBP/USD Performance Chart (12/03/10 16:00)
| Daily % Chg |
0.46% |
|
3 months |
-7.32% |
| 1 week |
-0.03% |
|
6 months |
-9.16% |
| 1 month |
-2.97% |
|
1 year |
9.07% |
Details
| Prev close |
1.5062 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.7043 |
| Last trade |
1.5132 |
|
|
52 week low |
1.3657 |
| High |
1.5173 |
|
|
Low |
1.5027 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.60 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.57 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.54 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.59 |
|
|
|
Commentary
Sterling also continued with its upward momentum which started on March 10. After a small retracement heading into the London trading session, the GBP found technical support from the short-term upward trend line and took full advantage, shooting straight up for almost 150 pips before slowing down. After mixed comments from MPC member Spencer Dale that suggested both a withdrawing of the quantitative easing that started a year ago and the potential need for additional amounts of quantitative easing, this pair started moving sideways as the market did not seem to know which way to head. The directional verdict came down, though, when US retail sales posted 0.3% growth and core retail sales figures showed 0.8% growth. Both sides of this report far surpassed expectations and, as a result, the US dollar has taken back some of the ground lost earlier. As we close out the week, the GBP/USD pair is very near an important resistance level close to 1.5200, which represents both the high on March 8th as well as the bottom of last weekend’s opening gap. Dan Cook, Chicago
USD/CAD Performance Chart (12/03/10 16:00)
| Daily % Chg |
-0.59% |
|
3 months |
-3.85% |
| 1 week |
-1.05% |
|
6 months |
-5.46% |
| 1 month |
-4.15% |
|
1 year |
-20.78% |
Details
| Prev close |
1.0240 |
|
|
52 week high |
1.2958 |
| Last trade |
1.0180 |
|
|
52 week low |
1.0156 |
| High |
1.0252 |
|
|
Low |
1.0156 |
Bloomberg Median Forecasts
| Q1 2010 |
1.05 |
|
Q3 2010 |
1.05 |
| Q2 2010 |
1.06 |
|
Q4 2010 |
1.07 |
|
|
|
Commentary
Of the two North American dollars, the loonie has been the stronger of the two today. After a modest statement of strength during the Australasian and European trading sessions, the exclamation point was added with the release of Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada showed that the northern nation exceeded forecasts by adding 20.9K jobs to the economy in February. This positive figure helped to push down the overall unemployment rate one tick to 8.2%. On the back of this news, the CAD shot higher. The US dollar was able to stop the bleeding a bit on the release of promising retail sales data; however, even that positive news has only helped the greenback to gain back a small percentage of the value lost earlier. Dan Cook, Chicago
Notes: Chart data sourced from Bloomberg. Bloomberg Median Forecasts are produced by Bloomberg by taking the median level from rates forecast by a number of contributors. These contributors consist of leading banks and security firms.
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